Five fantasy football sleepers with low ADP

Adam Levitan - Rotoworld

You think you’re sneaky, right? You’re going to stack a team with Ryan Mathews, Julio Jones, Trent Richardson and Demaryius Thomas while nobody is looking, thus coasting to the title. Think again.

By taking an early look at the average draft position (ADP) tool in our Draft Guide, we can see that those “buzz” players aren’t as undervalued as you might think. Mathews (5.6) and Richardson (12.8) are both first-round picks, while Jones’ ADP is currently at 36.9. Thomas is at 58.2, a number that is sure to rise once the general public sees Peyton Manning actually throwing passes again.

In order to find true “undervalued” guys, we’re going to have to dig deeper.

* Editor's Note: The full Draft Guide will be available on July 5 and will be constantly updated until Week 1.

These ADP numbers are sure to fluctuate significantly once training camp and drafting season kicks into high gear. But initial impressions are hard to shake, so we can gain a lot by evaluating the report. Some guys currently flying under the public’s radar:

1. Brandon Lloyd – ADP 64.1
Where he went in Rotoworld’s June 11 expert mock: 53^rd overall

Perhaps Lloyd is slipping because owners have bad memories of failed Patriots wideout experiments such asJoey Galloway and Chad Ochocinco. But this one feels different. Lloyd is a personal favorite of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and his strength lies in the deep, vertical passing game. Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney,Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez can’t say that.

The last time McDaniels was the Patriots’ offensive coordinator with a healthy Tom Brady (2007), they led the league in overall offense and passing offense. That year, vertical threat Randy Moss had 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns. That might sound crazy, until you recall that Lloyd had 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2010 withKyle Orton and Tim Tebow as his quarterbacks -- and McDaniels calling the plays.

2. Michael Vick – ADP 51.6
Where he went in Rotoworld’s June 11 expert mock: 20^th overall

Stars coming off bad years are often going to be undervalued. And Vick certainly fits that criterion. He sustained a concussion in Week 2 last season and also fractured two ribs in Week 10. Even when Vick was on the field for 13 games, he threw a career-high 14 interceptions and flukily ran for just one score.

By all accounts, Vick has rededicated himself as he goes through his first full offseason as a starter since 2006. The Eagles’ offense is just as potent as it was last year when Vick was a consensus first-round fantasy pick. If there’s any kind of bounce-back here – and there should be – Vick is a great bet to regain top-10 status.

3. Brandon LaFell – ADP 159.1
Where he went in Rotoworld’s June 11 expert mock: 110^th overall

LaFell curiously played behind Legedu Naanee for much of last season. Coach Ron Rivera says that was to keep a “carrot” in front of him. Regardless, it’s obvious that the 6’2/211 LaFell is locked in as the No. 2 wideout opposite Smith heading into this season. Naanee is in Miami and David Gettis is coming off a torn ACL.

Those around the Panthers have speculated strongly that the organization believes LaFell is in for a breakout year. He’s in his third season, has Cam Newton throwing him the ball and has highly aggressive Rob Chudzinski calling the plays. Value LaFell as a strong bench player with upside rather than the mere flier his current ADP suggests.

4. James Starks – ADP 80.1
Where he went in Rotoworld’s June 11 expert mock: 80^th overall

Unquestioned starting running backs don’t usually last into the seventh round. Some guesses as to why Starks’ ADP is so low:

A) There’s a perception that the Packers throw on every play: Well, this one just isn’t true. The Pack attempted 34.5 passes per game last season, 14^th in the league.

B) There’s a perception that Starks won’t get the bulk of the carries: The depth chart behind Starks currently includesAlex Green (coming off an ACL tear), middling talent Brandon Saine and fullback John Kuhn. That shouldn’t scare anyone.

C) Starks isn’t durable: There’s some validity here. Starks hasn’t played a full season since 2008, when he was at the University of Buffalo.

Add this up and we don’t have a mid-round "yawn" pick. Considering the ever-present need for depth at the running back spot, Starks projects to give a lot of value if his ADP sticks around 80.

5. Titus Young – ADP 117.3
Where he went in Rotoworld’s June 11 expert mock: 97^th overall

We can often find value where there’s young talent blocked by a less explosive veteran. That’s what we have here as Young figures to be pushing Nate Burleson for snaps in two-wide sets come training camp. Thanks to this article from Mike Clay, we already know that Young will see plenty of action regardless. The Lions ran three-wide sets 58 percent of the time last season.

Young has had a buzzworthy offseason, and I’m not talking about his fight with teammate Louis Delmas. He’s ripped apart offseason workouts, drawing rave reviews from his coaches and the media. Young fits perfectly withMatthew Stafford’s rocket arm as a burner opposite Calvin Johnson. 

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Buyer Beware: Michael Turner

Michael Turner - RB - Falcons

ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas confirms the Falcons "repeatedly have said they plan to limit Michael Turner's carries."

The coaching staff has been relatively quiet on the topic of late, but coach Mike Smith made it a point of emphasis early in the offseason. Since then, we've learned that OC Dirk Koetter plans to shift toward a more pass-heavy offense. We had already planned to steer clear of the one-dimensional Turner after a second consecutive late-season fade. This is another reminder that the 30-year-old isn't worthy of his early third-round ADP.

Source: ESPN.com

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2012 the year of the running back?

We all know the cliche that the NFL is a quarterback driven league.  It is true and we have to look no further than back to the 2011 season where for the first time in the history of the game, not two, but three quarterbacks passed for over 5,000 yards.

Now I will not spend too much time looking at those numbers, because there is truth that passing numbers are inflated, and passing yards can be an over valued statistic.  But the point remains that the NFL is a passing league.  A perfect example is this graphic that charts the evolution of the game by monitoring the change in the pass to run ratio in the league.

chart by Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats

According to Stephen Dubner of Freakonomics, that trend continued through the past two seasons, with a rise to 34.3 pass plays and down to only 26.9 runs per game.  So how could 2012 be any different?

It won't.  Ok, wait a minute, I just told you that 2012 could be the best season for running backs since the great season of 2006, but nothings going to change?  What gives?  And what was so special about 2006?

I will explain, but let's talk about 2006 first.  In 2006 LaDanian Tomlinson was with the San Diego Chargers, and he was at his peak.  That season he ran for 1,815 yards and 28 touchdowns.  He averaged a gaudy 5.2 yards per carry.  He reigned supreme among running backs that year, as only the Chiefs' Larry Johnson even came close to his totals, with 1,789 yards of his own.  Despite their dominant seasons, those guys were not alone.  In fact, that season a remarkable 22 backs toppled over the 1,000 yard barrier, which stands as the 2nd most in league history.  Yet there is something else that stands out about that season as particularly interesting.

I looked at the top ten running backs in terms of receptions for each of the last six seasons.  I then averaged their reception total.  Likewise, among the top ten for each season (still based on receptions), I averaged their receiving yards.  It was then to my surprise that I found out that the best year was 2006 as well.  In 2006 the top ten "receiving-backs" averaged 63.7 receptions and 544.8 yards over the course of the season.  That is 6 receptions and 50 yards more on average than  2011.

Now this does not suggest a trend, but rather it shows why, at a glance, 2006 was such a special year for backs.  Since this caught me off guard, I wanted to look a little more at the top ten "receiving backs" of 2011.

2011 Season

What I find on this list is a group of players, who for the most part, did not even reach their potential, yet still produced quite well.

Chris Johnson held out last year and it not only hurt him, but his team as well.  It took about two months before he really hit his stride and became the dangerous player that everyone knows he can be.  This year with the contract issues behind him and a year in Mike Munchak's offense, CJ1k should return to his dominant form in both phases of the game.

Arian Foster has emerged out of nowhere to become one of the league's elite backs.  Last season he had some major hurdles with his lingering hamstring injury and the loss of Matt Schaub down the stretch.  Both of those severely impacted him and he still put up great numbers.  Expect him to have a monster year, especially if he can continue to average over 10 yards per reception.

Matt Forte continues to grab headlines because of the lack of a long term contract.  I was never a huge Forte fan, but he has won me over as he continues to produce and show his dedication and toughness.  I don't expect a holdout this year, as the Bears simply cannot afford it.  Put his knee injury behind him and add Brandon Marshall to the offense and you can count on increased production from this work horse.

Ryan Matthews has been labeled as a breakout player for both of his first two years and we have yet to see it.  What we have seen from Matthews is the rare explosiveness that helped him get drafted in the 1st round.  What we haven't seen is durability and the intangibles that would keep him on the field more than his counterparts.  However he appears healthy.  Going into his 3rd year he should be much improved in pass protection as well.  Add to that the fact the Mike Tolbert is now in Carolina, and Matthews' production could and should soar to new heights.

The Redskins grabbed a young stud running back out of Nebraska last year, but almost refused to use him even when they were decimated with injuries and lack of production.  However when Hightower was lost for the year and Torrain proved he couldn't produce on a consistent basis, the Shanahan's finally caved and gave the reigns to Roy Helu.  All he did was put up over 100 all-purpose yards in 4 of the 5 games in which he touched the ball over 15 times.  Another year to master the nuances of an NFL system should do wonders for the 2nd year back.  Additionally do not under estimate the impact that an athletic QB like RG3 has on the run game.  Like we have seen with Vick and Young, a QB with the ability to make plays with his feet forces the backside to play honest.  If they don't play honest, the boot game that Shanahan loves, will destroy opposing defenses.  I expect Helu to be the starter and to have a huge year.


The Eagles had a dream last season that turned into a nightmare.  However despite the chaos that surrounded the team, Shady McCoy turned out a spectacular season in which he was an early season MVP candidate.  With much of the drama from '11 behind them you can expect the Eagles to be an elite team this season on both sides of the ball.  Vick and DeSean will rebound from a down year and it will only open up the offense that much more.  Shady will continue to produce, with more production in the passing game this year.

I particularly like Bush and McCluster because I can see both being used more in a passing role on their offenses.  Bush will be pushed by Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller, so I expect Philbin to find a home for him flexed out and in the slot in his wide open west coast system.

Kansas City already has a crowded backfield with Jamal Charles and Peyton Hillis looking to share reps, so wisely, Romeo Crennel has already said that the team will look for more ways to get the ball to McCluster.  He is a player that excels in the open field, whether on special teams or in the passing game.  Expect McCluster to be used a lot like the Saints have used Bush and Sproles with a combination of him in the slot and as a flanker.  Additionally we should expect a lot of two back sets that will allow him to chip and release.

Other notable backs that will shine, especially in the passing game this year include Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Jackson, Ray Rice and Tampa's rookie running back Doug Martin.  Last but not least, if they can stay healthy (which seems unlikely), Darren McFadden and Jahvid Best can move their names into the conversation as the top producing backs of 2012.

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Coming Soon - TTR Fantasy

As we The Tiger Report continues to grow, we are expanding to meet the needs of our audience.


As many of you have already noticed we launched TTR Draft to cover all of our college scouting and NFL draft related content as we move forward.

Now as the season draws near, we are taking the same steps for fantasy football coverage.  So just as TTR Draft is an extension of The Tiger Report, TTR Fantasy will function just the same.  All sites are interconnected and are a part of the whole.

Because we are still using the Blogger platform we are slightly limited, so this is the best way for us to bring you quality content, in an easy to find fashion.

Since all the sites are interconnected, you can easily navigate between them, but they do have different addresses as seen below.

TigerReport.blogspot.com
TTRDraft.blogspot.com
TTRFantasy.blogspot.com